China’s leadership could decide that a Guatemala Email List long-term accommodation with a quasi-independent Taiwan was the best possible recourse for maintaining its significant global economic status. If, however, you stick with the Pentagon’s way of thinking, things look grim. You would have to assume that Taiwan will continue its present course and that Beijing’s urge to secure the island’s integration Guatemala Email List with the mainland will only intensify. Likewise, you would have to assume that the inclination of Washington policymakers to support an ever-more-independent Taiwan in the face of Chinese military action will only grow, as relations with Beijing continue to Guatemala Email List spiral downward.
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From this circumscribed Guatemala Email List perspective, all that’s holding China’s leaders back from using force to take Taiwan right now is their concern over the PLA’s inferiority in intelligent zed warfare. Once that’s overcome — in 2027, by the Pentagon’s reckoning — nothing will stand in the way of a Chinese invasion or possibly World War III. Under such circumstances, it’s all too imaginable that Washington might move from a stance of “strategic Guatemala Email List stability” to one of “strategic clarity,” providing Taiwan’s leadership with an ironclad guarantee of military support in the face of any future attack. While this wouldn’t alter Chinese military planning significantly — PLA Guatemala Email List strategists undoubtedly assume that the U.S. would intervene, pledge or not — it could lead to complaisance in Washington,
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To a conviction that Beijing would Guatemala Email List automatically be deterred by such a guarantee (as Senator Cotton and many others seem to think). In the process, both sides could instead find themselves on the path to war. And take my word for it, a conflict between them, however it began, could prove hard indeed to confine to the immediate neighborhood of Taiwan. In any such engagement, the Guatemala Email List principal job of Chinese forces would be to degrade American air and naval forces in the western Pacific. This could end up involving the widespread use of cruise and ballistic missiles to strike U.S. ships, as well as its bases in Japan, South Korea, and on various Pacific islands. Similarly, the Guatemala Email List principal job of the U.S. military would be to degrade.